We’re one week away from the Oscars. What will the show look like this year? When the wildfires ravaged parts of greater Los Angeles, the impact was so devastating that some people, including Stephen King, called for the Oscars to be canceled. I had a feeling that we wouldn’t feel the same weeks later, and sure enough, no one’s talking about that as an option anymore. The show must go on – but count on the telecast to highlight the fires in some (hopefully) dignified and relevant way.
Two other things that may cause outbursts, surprises or interesting speeches is the state of the nation, where an increasingly authoritarian Trump administration is causing great concern, and the Emilia Pérez scandal. Admittedly, it has died down a bit over the last weeks, but its impact is undeniably historic. The downfall of Karla Sofía Gascón as a candidate for Best Actress was dramatic and swift, caused by old tweets that betrayed a racist, Islamophobic attitude; her attempts to deal with the outrage were clumsy and self-serving. How will she be treated at the Oscars?
The choice of host this year looks brilliant on paper. For us loyal fans of the podcast “Conan O’Brien Needs a Friend”, it’s been wonderful to see O’Brien become reinvigorated by his new forum and he should have no problem guiding the Oscars. Aptly timed, there’s even a recent movie where he plays a therapist, the critically lauded If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
The 97th Oscars will be broadcast on ABC and streamed on Hulu, Disney Plus internationally.
Let’s take a look at the categories.
Live Action Short
The Croatian film The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent revisits the Yugoslav Wars, particularly a 1993 massacre where a Serbian paramilitary unit murdered 19 people. Having already won awards in Europe, including at Cannes, the film should win the Oscar.
Animated short
Beautiful Men is a French-Belgian-Dutch collaboration where three brothers head to Turkey for hair transplantations. This film about male insecurities should be a winner.
Documentary short
The death penalty is a recurring topic in films and I Am Ready, Warden looks like it has a chance at the Oscars; the film examines the last days before the execution of a Texas death row inmate.
Sound
This could be a close call between Wicked and Dune: Part Two, but I think the latter will have the edge.
Makeup and hairstyling
No close calls here, The Substance and its body-horror extravaganza will win.
Visual effects
Dune: Part Two may have to put up a fight for its sound Oscar, but it will easily pick up the visual effects award.
Original song
The likely winner, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, survives because of how it’s presented in the movie… but on its own it’s not much of a song. The closest competitor, “Never Too Late” by Elton John, is overly familiar but a much better song. Overall, not an impressive category this year.
Original score
Daniel Blumberg’s breakthrough as a film music composer, The Brutalist, is a stunningly original, eclectic album that fits the film very well. He should, and will, win.
Production Design
The sets for The Brutalist are a very important part of the film, but Nathan Crowley did an amazing job creating the world of Oz in Wicked and looks set to win.
Costume Design
It’s unfair to say there’s no real competition here (after all, there’s Nosferatu)… but Wicked will win, for sure.
international feature
A tough category to predict. Just how much of a blow has France’s Emilia Pérez taken because of Gascón’s behavior? Then there’s also the fact that even if the film is well-reviewed, it’s not much of an audience winner and it’s controversial among Latinos. Brazil’s universally lauded I’m Still Here could sail past and win. In the end though, I think Emilia Pérez might survive.
Documentary feature
Two films are battling for the Oscar, one about the Israel/Palestine conflict, the other about Russia’s war on Ukraine. No Other Land has been the most talked about movie of the category for a long time, but now it looks like Porcelain War will win.
Animated feature
The Wild Robot is likely to have the edge, even if the Latvian Flow has been more of a winner in Europe.
Film editing
Traditionally, the film that wins Best Picture also wins the editing Oscar. Not necessarily… but that’s usually the case. Since things seem to be going Sean Baker’s way, he should win for Anora.
Cinematography
British cinematographer Lol Crawley is likely to win an Oscar for his towering, magnificent work on The Brutalist.
Adapted Screenplay
Peter Straughan’s impressive adaptation of Robert Harris’s novel is a major reason why Conclave is so compelling.
Original screenplay
After he wins the editing Oscar, Sean Baker will win another one for writing Anora.
Supporting actor
Kieran Culkin doesn’t have much to worry about, he will win for A Real Pain.
Supporting actress
As in the last category, there’s one person who’s dominated throughout awards season and that’s Zoe Saldaña, for Emilia Pérez.
actress
Watch out, Demi Moore! She’s been pegged as the likely winner here for ages, and it is indeed a magnificent performance in The Substance… but the last few weeks have seen the rise of Mikey Madison as a very dangerous challenger, and if it’s a big night for Anora, why not? I still believe Moore wins in the end though.
Actor
Adrien Brody will win his second Oscar for his work as a brilliant Hungarian architect in The Brutalist.
Director
I believe it stands between Sean Baker for Anora and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. Who should win? The latter, in my opinion, it’s just an astounding accomplishment. But Baker’s directing of Anora (along with his editing) makes the film such a propulsive ride. I’m guessing he’ll win.
Picture
And the Oscar goes to Anora (but The Brutalist deserves to win).
